Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day 2 preview
Apart from the Champion Hurdle, the opening day of the
Festival is always a tough one for me. The stats tell me in hollow ringing
tones that however the programme is tweaked and swapped around, the Neptune,
the RSA Chase and the Champion Chase are three of my best yielding races. So time to strap in for Day 2 at
Prestbury Park, for what might be a recovery mission.
National Hunt Chase
(four miler)
Fittingly named in honour of Lord John Oaksey, this is a
race I have struggled with since Rith Dubh stole it by a nose the first
year I came for the (then) full three days. It was my only clear cut win at
2002 festival. Grim. The race conditions have changed significantly since then and it
is now a straight Class 2 amateur riders staying novice chase. The 2013 renewal looks strong. Willie
Mullins won’t run the Graham Wylie-owned pair Boston Bob and Back
In Focus (8-1 NRNB) against each other. The market suggests that the
former will head to the RSA and the latter here. BIF's form is top notch and he’ll stay all day. But his ability to run well on good
ground is a concern. The horse’s only failure was at Aintree when he
could hear his hooves rattle. That was under the tutelage of the tarnished
Howard Johnson and I’m tempted to hold that up as a more plausible explanation
than the ground. Nevertheless, he may not show up at all.
Pipe fields Goulanes who was very brave at Wetherby recently
on his chase debut under rules and has points form to throw into the mix.
Godsmejudge and Rival D’Estruval bring strong form claims and deserve to be at
he head of the market. Further down the betting, if Make A Track (25-1) lined
up here I’d be all over him. Charlie Swann’s charge beat Vesper Bell (another
live chance here) in a novice chase at Thurles back in November and looked ready to step up in class. Not sighted
since, I’m assuming he’s had a setback and won’t be ready in time for this. But
I’m keeping my eyes peeled.
Neptune
This is a great race and regularly becomes the novice hurdle
heat that sets my pulse coursing the quickest. It is a watershed race with some legendary winners
subsequently stepping back to two miles (Istabraq, Hardy Eustace) and the likes
of Denman (runner up in 07) going up in trip.
That intermediate distance factor has already resulted in
the race cutting up faster than the Tories after Eastleigh. Many of the early
season principals are looking like they are Supreme-bound (Champagne Fever, Un
Atout) or set for three miles in the Albert Bartlett (Ballycasey, At Fishers
Cross). I reckon there are five live chances at the head of the market. Pont
Alexandre has won his races well but appears a short price for what he has done
and so must be opposed on those grounds. Rule The World must have a good shout
on his Slaney Hurdle win from Minsk, although Champagne Fever appeared beaten
too easily there and there was probably something amiss. That suggests the form
is not as rock solid as it could be, given the way CF ran next time out. There
is a suspicion that he has a preference for soft ground, too.
The English challenge is headed by The New One who has only
been beaten twice: once in the Champion Bumper and once by At Fishers Cross in
bad ground and after being given a poor ride. Given those excuses he holds
strong claims. However on price and form lines I’m siding with Taquin
Du Seuil. Despite Pricewise having put him up, Jonjo O’Neill’s inmate
is still a couple of points bigger than The New One and the manner of his
Challow Hurdle win at Newbury was authoritative. There’s enough in his flat
form to suggest goodish ground will suit and I’m happy enough with the 13-2
I’ve pouched, though a little aggrieved that I dithered too long and missed the
10s. This is very close to call and I can see some acca action involving at
least The New One. Puffin Billy gets a little buzzed up in his races and though
connections found excuses for his defeat by Melodic Rendezvous (puss in hoof),
I feel he has questions to answer now.
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| Taquin Du Seuil |
RSA Novice Chase
This is a gruelling race and favours the archetypal dour
stayer, ala Bob’s Worth and Denman, rather than the flashy eye-catchers and
horses that win on the bridle. It is regularly the graveyard of Festival good
things. Grand Crus last year emptying at the top of the hill is only the most
recent example. Who can forget the ringing silence when Rule Supreme came home
at 33-1 in 2004 with hotshot Our Vic at 11/8 back in third. Or Punchestowns’ no
show at 2-1 in 2010 and Time For Rupert the year after?
Long time market leader Dynaste also has the option of the
Jewson at 2 ½ miles on Thursday and I can see the attraction of sending him there
over a less arduous trip. But he will probably line up here and ticks plenty of
boxes: distance, ground and track.
He’s a good jumper too, and I’ve been impressed with his athletic
ability to put himself right at fences when on the wrong stride. I’m opposing
only on value grounds and I’ll no doubt have Dynaste, wherever he turns up,
in some increasingly far-fetched combinations.
I’m opposing with Unioniste (8-1 NRNB) who was thumped
by Dynaste at Cheltenham over half a mile shorter back in November. This is
Unioniste’s trip, however, and he has obviously improved since, with a good handicap win off a featherweight back at HQ. And subsequently a less convincing win at odds-on last month at
Newbury. This wouldn’t be my most confident bet, but a better gallop will suit
him round here. Five year olds have a poor record though and the 2lb allowance
isn’t a massive game changer. Unioniste’s handler, Nicholls was the last to
train a five year old winner in the shape of Star De Mohaison when the
allowance was much more hefty.
Goulanes would be interesting if routed here as would Boston
Bob, who looks slow enough to enjoy the grind of this race and would be there
if they go off too fast in front. Take out the Pipe grey and I’m not convinced
this is a classic renewal.
Queen Mother Champion
Chase
A place call here. On all known form, Sprinter Sacre cannot
be beaten. I’ve taken 20-1 each way about Sanctuaire at ¼ the odds to three
places. The reasoning is that I won’t get those terms on the day and with some
of the market principals heading elsewhere, he should have a good chance of
filling 2nd or 3rd. Sanctuaire has seen enough of the
back end of Sprinter Sacre this season, having been slammed by him twice: once
when trying to force the pace and once with exaggerated hold up tactics. Given a
sensible ride on decent Spring ground he should run well.
Who he will need to beat to get his bonce in the frame is
guesswork at the moment. Cue Card is market leader for the Ryanair, though if I
was Tizzard, I’d come here. I don’t think he’ll get home well enough over half
a mile further. He could end up taking on Sizing Europe there and I know who my
money would be on. Finian’s
Rainbow could come here, but it’s an act of faith to blame only the ground for
his two desperate runs this season. Somersby is not the horse he was and
arguably never has been.
Coral Cup
I love this race. I used to hate it and then I backed the
winner two years on the bounce. Now I love it. Fickle and capricious. That’s
me.
I’ll be punting the event nearer the day, but of the market
principals I’m drawn to two of my 40 to follow horses whom I will back if I can
find some value: Pendra and Cotton Mill. Pendra ran strongly
behind Melodic Rendezvous in the Tolworth and could not match the winner’s turn
of foot over the last two furlongs. The extra half-mile will be perfect here
and connections have sought to exploit his handy handicap mark – an
increasingly common tactic - rather than take their chance in the Neptune. See
the Champion Hurdle preview for comments about Cotton Mill.
Get Me Out Of Here is another 40 to follow horse whom I may
feel obliged to get behind here, although the way this gutsy horse has been
campaigned is a travesty. Twice set impossible tasks in bottomless ground that
he hates against Oscar Whisky and then Darlan must have mashed his spirit.
Carrying top weight here for the 2nd successive season might just
break him. The World Hurdle over a trip he has never tried is GMOOH’s other
Festival option. I think connections should head to Aintree instead.
Further down the list, Many Clouds is interesting too –
progressive profile, willing attitude and a price of 25-1. There will be plenty
of others.
Fred Winter Juvenile
Hurdle
A race I’ve never managed to get my head around. I recognise
its value in that it has made the Triumph Hurdle less of a cavalry charge and
more of a quality race. Beyond that I don’t focus on the juvenile form closely
enough to identify where there might be handicap value. This will be a low
punting race. My shortlist had included Ruacana who looks real quality, but
might now be burdened with too much weight here and Saphir Du Rheu about whom
the value appears to have gone already. I’m looking again at Brian Ellison’s Totalize
who seems to be going the right way and is available at a double figure
price.
Bumper
A race to watch, enjoy and note for next season.
Consequently a low punting heat. Another of my 40 to follow horses is entered
here. Fascino Rustico switched to Paul Nicholls in the early part of
the season. After running 4th in a decent bumper at the Open
meeting, he’s had a breathing operation and was put away. I’d be tempted into a
small wager at 33-1 or better if he showed up.
Nap of the day: Taquin Du Seuil
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