Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day 1 preview
The murky Festival markets are beginning to settle. Running
plans are a touch clearer, handicap weights are set and bookies are dusting
down their annual Non-Runner-No-Bet offers. With the shackles shaking loose, I
feel the urge for a broadside of scattergun punting. Must. Keep. My. Focus.
Time to preview the greatest show on earth.
Supreme
Nothing further added to the two each-way singles on Melodic
Rendezvous (14-1) and Dodging Bullets (14-1). Both have
shortened up since those bets were struck and Melodic Rendezvous further
enhanced his claims with a demolition job of previously unbeaten Puffin Billy
at Exeter. However, My Tent Or Yours has changed the complexion of this market
with his rout of a very strong Betfair Hurdle field at Newbury last month. That
form is head and shoulders above anything else here. But with the exception of
MTOY, these are all unexposed novices. I really like the look of MR and reason
that he goes there with a very strong chance, having improved for every run and
likely to do so again on better ground. Despite his exciting turn of foot over
this trip, the trainer has not ruled out the Neptune and I would be gutted if
he went there instead.
Dodging Bullets has translated solid efforts amongst last
season’s juvenile crowd into encouraging form this season. I don’t think he’s
been seen to best effect yet. On a couple of occasions DB has had to make his
own running. Even his race behind Darlan in the Christmas Hurdle turned into a
five furlong sprint. A strongly run Supreme will play to his stamina strengths
and will see him bang in the mix.
Jezki looks the pick of the Irish challengers and add in Un
Atout for a fascinating curtain raiser. This is the Festival, and if ever mug
punts were permissible it is here. I will inevitably have My Tent Or Yours in a
portfolio of crazy acca combinations with other novice hurdlers and other
bankers.
Arkle
This season’s renewal is following the pattern of last year
when a flying grey from the Nicky Henderson stable frightened off most of the
competition. Simonsig brings a reputation into the race only slightly less tall
than Sprinter Sacre’s. There are at least two other rivals that have this race
as their confirmed aim. However, whilst we can expect Overturn and Arvika
Ligeonniere to be joined by others chasing a bit of prize money, this
will not be a race with any great strength in depth.
That said, this has all the hallmarks of a great encounter.
Overturn – rated higher than Simonsig over hurdles – will have Maguire on board
cutting out the running and praying that he calls the fractions right to make
the most of his mount’s strength and fighting abilities. Overturn is sure to
make it a true test and exert some pressure on the jumping of Simonsig who
comes here with less experience than his two principal rivals. The latter would
appear to have all the bases covered, having won his two chases both from the
front and tucked in behind, and with cast iron 2 ½ mile form in the locker.
Lack of experience hasn’t been a barrier to previous Arkle winners. Although
word has it that Yogi Breisner turned up this week at Seven Barrows to put
Henderson’s charges through their paces. That’s enough to convince me Simonsig
is not the Festival banker! Arvika Ligeonniere has the potential to be a rather
large fly in the ointment. His style of running is also to cut out the pace and
his wins this winter have been stamped by exuberant jumping that has taken
lengths out of opponents. Arvika would be sensible bet for this race at the
prices but for the nagging doubts about his tendency to jump right at some
fences and that irritating soft, novicey fall last time out. This won’t be a
big betting race for me and I’ll probably leave it until the day. I expect
Simonsig to win, I’ll want to back Overturn, but I’ll probably have a couple of
quid on Arvika. Mullins won’t have any need to resort to Breisner’s practices
to iron out jumping issues.
Festival Trophy
handicap Chase
The old National Hunt Handicap Chase over 3 miles, now
sponsored by JLT Specialty, regularly throws up competitive renewals. Even at this close range to the
Festival, multiple entries and massive fields make sorting the wheat from the
chaff a tricky proposition. As ever, there are conflicting clues amongst the
race trends: outsiders can do well and yet nine of the last 12 runners were in
the top four in the betting. Previous
festival form seems to be important and yet novices have won three of the last
nine renewals. One set of stats do stand out though; top weights have a
shocking win record and only one horse has carried more than 11 stone to
victory since 1998. That was
Bensalem on 11-2 in 2011. No winner has been rated over 150 for 30 years.
Problema Tic at 28-1 NRNB looks to have the right profile. His
style of racing off the pace will suit this race. The horse (like so many being
readied for the Festival) is crying out for a piece of decent ground. David
Pipe is clearly plotting up something after he was hunted round without ever
threatening in a race at least half a mile too short at Warwick last
month. That came after a fall in
the Becher Chase at Aintree when tanking. Problema Tic has other options,
notably the Kim Muir, but I hope he shows up here.
Champion Hurdle
As ever, an absolutely fascinating race. Always the
highlight of the first day and one of my most profitable events of the entire carnival.
Dripping with intrigue and speculation, as usual, much hangs on the way the
race will be run. Some of that comes from the howlers that Ruby and AP served
up on Hurricane Fly and Binocular last year, riding to keep tabs on each other
and letting Overturn and Rock On Ruby get first run.
The pace could well come from Cinders and Ashes who will go
better here on good ground than in either of his disappointing runs this
season. But I find it hard to
believe he’s good enough to win. Countrywide Flame will also step up on his
last two runs back at the track he loves and with the hill to devour. He’ll be
staying on and will outrun his odds. I’ve yet to be convinced by Grandouet and
harbour a suspicion that he may be a bridle horse. Geraghty will certainly
leave his effort to the last possible moment. Binocular is the subject of
favourable noises from Henderson’s yard. McCoy will be looking to make amends. Hurricane
Fly is hard to assess this season, having beaten the same old faces in Ireland again.
His best chance is on bad ground. Though this is hardly a killer stat, his win
in 2011 was on a considerably slower surface than his 3rd last
season.
I’m expecting Zarkandar (backed at 13-2 prior to
his Kingwell victory) to have travelled through his race better than recently,
off a stronger pace and to have enough left to grind out a win up the hill. He
is very tough and has track form. I have Raya Star (40-1, but now available
at much bigger) as a genuine each way hope. He clouted a hurdle in the back
straight during that Zarkandar race, which ended any chance and back on good
ground, this massively improving hurdler can get amongst them turning for home.
I’ve also got Cotton Mill at 25-1 who
would be very interesting after his very good 2nd in the Betfair
Hurdle, but may instead go for the County Hurdle where he is amongst the market
leaders.
Cannot wait for
this one.
Cross Country Chase
No bet at this stage. Will certainly have a dig on the day,
but this is not a race I want to invest too much research in at the moment.
Mares Hurdle
This race, of course, is all about one horse. She
Ranks Me (16-1 e-w and 7-1 place, BF). A progressive and game novice. 2
½ miles is her trip. A good win over Ma Filleuil is probably her best single
piece of form back in December and she has come on oodles for that. She needs
to be more fluent at her hurdles and to find a better rhythm in her races, but
better ground will help. And if Maguire can get those oversize, fluffy white
cheekpieces to settle her, then she will be storming up the hill to give
Quevega the fright of her life. Of course that one may end up in the World
Hurdle and then we are in a very different shooting match.
Centenary Novice
Handicap Chase
The old Jewson, run over 2 ½ miles and this year known as
the Pulteney Land Investment Chase. Good form coming into the race is
important, as is previous Festival and distance form. This market is still very
difficult to assess, but I wouldn’t be put off backing something close to the
top of the weights here. Buckers Bridge (12-1 NRNB), beating
Twinlight in the Flying Bolt Novice Chase last month appeals over this trip.
Hazy Tom would be interesting if showing up and so would a few others further
down the handicap.
Nap of the day: Zarkandar
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