Christmas shopping
The season is sizzling. This isn’t another global warming
warning and it’s not the mild weather that has me clammy all over. The jumps
game is hot right now and the festive fixtures look as tasty as a turkey
dinner.
The season was full of promise back in October. But aren’t
they all? So often the expectancy outweighs the delivery. Not so far this term.
The Mullins battalion looks even stronger. Last season’s
stellar novices are beginning to dominate in new divisions and the established
Group 1 talent grows ever more formidable, bar the odd unexpected hiccup. Not
by any means in the same league, but the rise and rise of new young trainers
like Dan Skelton and Harry Fry is encouraging.
The narrative of the early winter has also been about the
return to form of some old lags I was happy to write off. I don't just mean Philip Hobbs (love that guy). Sprinter Sacre, Sire
De Grugy, Cue Card, Sir Des Champs, O’Faolains Boy, Simonsig (although that may
be brief), and even Smad Place who is starting to deliver on the promise as an 8-y-o.
Now at the business end of the season, it is time for the
novices to show their mettle. We have had some early skirmishes and sighters,
but the Christmas fixtures are where we start to see the good ones taking each
other on. Particularly so in Ireland. The magnificent Leopardstown four
day-meeting is where I have started my Christmas shopping.
On Boxing Day, we will see the best two-mile novice chase of
the season. Douvan is held in the highest regard by the Closesutton team, Mullins
hailing him as “an amazing athlete and I would say he’s as good as I’ve ever
had”. In the Racing Post Novice Chase he will bump into two other decent sorts.
I backed Ttebbob at 10/1 for the race a fortnight ago after his
scintillating round of jumping in a Navan Grade 3. He’s now 4/1. However, compared
to my punting pals Bacchy and Si, I’ve been slow off the mark. They both took
advantage of much chunkier prices after his jumping debut at Thurles. Chuck in
Sizing John and we have a properly exciting contest. Henry De Bromhead has a
good one in this clean-jumping gelding who should get closer to Douvan than he
did in his three tries over hurdles.
Once I start to ramble around the Christmas markets, I find it hard
to stop. So I’ve backed Ttebbob for the Arkle at Cheltenham
at 20/1. I’ve also taken a punt on De Bromhead stepping Sizing John up in trip
and backed him for the weaker-looking JLT Novice Chase at 12/1. I may be wrong
about both these Festival targets. Let’s face it, that wouldn’t be the first
time. I’ll just go in again. None of this false caution of previous years.
Gung-ho! It’s the only way.
I haven’t looked properly at the staying novice chasers,
except to note that the two at the head of the market both look impressive: No
More Heroes and More Of That. Looking forward to Native River and Twea For Two
at Kempton. Both have started well. Nevertheless, I’m keeping my powder dry for
now. (Is that the shortest-lived ‘gung-ho’ policy in ante-post history?)
Also at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, Rashaan goes in the
Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle. He’s the best Triumph prospect I’ve seen all
season and I’ve duly backed him for Cheltenham at 16/1. From the small stable
of Colin Kidd, I was so impressed with his neat hurdling style and smooth
travelling when he took a decent Fairyhouse race last month. You have to trust
what you see sometimes.
Mullins hasn’t yet sorted out his Triumph crew. He’ll have
plenty to choose from. Here, it looks like Footpad is his current first choice.
Oddly, I haven’t sorted out the novice hurdlers at all,
aside from the juveniles. No bet yet. Not even close. I like Barters Hill,
Yorkhill and Bellshill. And anything else vaguely undulating, to be honest. But
I’ve no idea which race they’ll go for. A little more under the radar, I saw on
telly and liked the look of Winter Escape, trained by Alan King. I’ll keep
tabs. Early days though. So unlike the novice chasers, I’m not ready to make a
call.
Away from the novices, one of the few superstars we haven’t
yet seen from the Co Carlow champion trainer is Un De Sceaux. All being well
(and him not feeling too flat) he should finally emerge in the Paddy Power
Chase on Sunday. The horse is superb to see careering at his fences, but is a
ridiculously short price for the Champion Chase. Best price of 7/4. I can’t be
having that. Sizing Granite, another from the De Bromhead yard, will line up
against him on Sunday. I’ve dipped in to the spends again to take 14/1 there
and also 33/1 about this lad for the two-mile showpiece at the Festival. This
is a real punt. I thought he put in a beautiful round of jumping at Aintree in
April when taking the Maghull Novices Chase. Admittedly not the strongest
renewal and he failed to land the even-money on his reappearance this season.
He ran well enough though, giving lumps of weight away, and showing some fight to
go down by only a head. He has to improve and at the moment 33/1 is a fair
price. I’m investing in potential.
Monday 28th sees the Christmas Hurdle at
Leopardstown over 3 miles. Martello Tower is in the early decs
and I am keen to see him line up having
had him as a stocking filler at 16/1 for the World Hurdle. The division has
suddenly come to life with the mighty marker put down by Thistlecrack last
Saturday and the reversion to hurdles of Saphir Du Rheu – surely still feeling
the effects of his recent Hennessy run in the same race. I still think there’s
value hereabouts, though. Whilst Martello Tower is speculative until he
actually reappears, I’m also very interested in Alpha Des Obeaux and Kilcooley.
I’m likely to play again.
The best race that day at Leopardstown is the Lexus Chase.
The staying chase division is absolutely fascinating right now, despite the
recent loss of Coneygree for the season, we are enjoying a bumper show. Mullins
holds a strong hand, of course. It’s likely that Don Poli and Djakadam will be
his charges here, whilst Vautour and Valseur Lido head to Kempton on Boxing Day
to take on Cue Card, Don Cossack, Silviniaco Conti and Road To Riches.
The King George looks the pick of the two races and I can’t
wait to see the tactics unfold. I think I will be with Don Cossack who seems to
keep on improving and there should be no doubts about the track at Kempton
(whether or not there are any valid ones about Cheltenham). I’d love the winner
to be the new gurgle-free Cue Card but I don’t think he’s got the beating of
the Elliott horse. My only other comment is to note the staggering price
available about Road To Riches at 25/1. I could say the same about Valseur
Lido, too. I’m talking myself into too many bets here. Maybe it’s one to leave
alone and savour.
I have actually had an ante-post interest in this division. O’Faolains
Boy has attracted some sentimental shopping for the Gold Cup. In a
rather over-excited moment after his impressive win at Newbury last Friday, I
found myself unable to resist a little of the 33s generally on offer. Then
Rebecca Curtis confirmed him for the Welsh National on 27th and I
rather fear that will finish him for the season. Well it’s hardly classic Gold
Cup prep is it? Ho hum.
The Irish look to have the spoils of the Champion Hurdle
between them. Indeed, it may even be just between three or four Mullins charges.
Henderson seems to be misfiring. Peace And Co’s inability to settle is a worry;
and on Saturday JP McManus seemed to say that Hargam was a more likely runner
in the Ryanair Hurdle than My Tent Or Yours. It may well be that Top Notch ends
up being Hendo’s best shout in the Champ, but I don’t think he’s improving fast
enough. One who might be is Old Guard. The wise words on the
street suggest he’s not really a convincing Champion Hurdle type. I tend to
disagree at 20/1 and have had a small interest. Boxing Day will tell us more,
though the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton is surely Faugheen’s for the taking.
OK, the credit cards have gone back in the wallet. I’ll wait
until these Christmas crackers are out of the way before the re-gifting of
ante-posts starts…
Happy Christmas!
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