Shaping up: Festival 2014
My 2014 Festival Schedule of
Shame is already looking much plumper than at the same stage last year. I put
this down to the emergence of earlier than usual non-runner-no-bet markets on
the Championship races and more attractive prices in Victor Chandler’s non-runner-free-bet
policy.
Last season I tried hard to
cut down on flabby, reckless ante-posts and to save my investments until nearer
the day. I was not so taken with
VC’s thrifty prices on my festival fancies then, even though offered at
no-show-no-risk. The result? My most numbingly painful and loss-laden
Cheltenham in years.
I had long held that bullish
ante-post punting was giving me an eyes-like-saucers, big-odds-seeking build up
to the Festival whilst in reality driving sink holes into my betting strategy
that could swallow half of Hemel Hempstead. Last year was an attempt to curb
those instincts. It clearly made no difference.
It’s back to chasing the
value this year. Good thrill hunting is winning out against measured caution. I’m
looking to turn up on Tuesday 11th March with a fistful of ante-post
vouchers for live chances that are at least double the forecast SP. I feel
better already.
This is how the quest is
shaping up:
Supreme
Irving at 10-1. Struck before the Deloitte Hurdle at
Leopardstown last week where The Tullow Tank fluffed his lines but Vautour
improved into favouritism. The result also saw Irving clipped in a couple of
points. I had backed him thinking a good show in the Betfair Hurdle would see
his price collapse. In the end he didn’t make the race. But his good win at
Ascot in December sets a fair standard with that eventual Betfair Hurdle winner
Splash of Ginge back in third.
Arkle
So tough. Champagne Fever
seems very short on the balance of what he’s done. He acts very well round
Cheltenham, but I can’t have him at that price. Trifolium I like. I wrote
him off after last season, but the wind ops have finally worked and he’s
improving massively. He jumps really sweetly and seems to travel well just off
the pace. I missed the real value though. 20-1 before the Irish Arkle, I got
only 6-1. No double SP odds here. I’ve also had a little dabble with Hinterland.
He’s a horse I’ve liked since his juvenile season when he never quite lived up
to his potential. The same goes for his novice campaign last year, before injury
curtailed it. Bigger, stronger and a better jumper, maybe this March is when he
delivers on the promise. His good win in a classy renewal of the Henry VIII at
Sandown in December is my most compelling piece of evidence. Best after a break
and with form at the track, I’m on at 11-1 e-w.
Champion Hurdle
Tingly all over. A renewal
that gets deeper and more irresistible with every trial. I’m counting eight
live chances. And I include Melodic Rendezvous (25-1 e-w)
amongst them. Nothing in his irresistible win over Zarkandar has dissuaded me
from this. In any other year he’d be a battle-hardened live each way shout.
This year, with My Tent Or Yours and Un De Sceaux completing their bloodless
preps on the same weekend to add to top drawer form already posted by the Fly, The
New One, Our Conor and Annie Power, I couldn’t say he’s a nailed on place
candidate. I also have Jezki at 12-1 e-w in the hope that
he will improve with a race run to suit. Such an event in prospect.
David Nicholson Mares Race
Carole’s Spirit at 25-1, as previously advised. Nothing new to
report, except that the race looks even tougher with Glen’s Melody posting a
decent result last week and Annie Power still riding high in the betting.
Neptune
Red Sherlock, 6-1, as before, and no change in the price. I also
have Champagne
West, 33-1 e-w, though he’s more likely for the Pertemps.
RSA Chase
I already had Many
Clouds (25-1 e-w) and Annacotty (25-1 e-w). Both have been
supported into best-price 20s. Annacotty without lifting a finger and Many
Clouds after a belting race on Saturday at Ascot. In my eyes the horse lost
nothing in defeat to O’Faolains Boy after taking on
Gevrey Chamberlain for the lead too far out. And especially so since I had backed
O’Faolains Boy at 33-1 for the RSA before this race. He’s a 40TF horse and was
happy to take a chance on him rediscovering form. Nice when it works out that
way. Not that Mark Brown, a Racing Post race analyst gives Rebecca Curtis’s
charge much chance, “As for this
year´s festival, he's probably worth a shot at the RSA (best-priced 20-1) but
would make little appeal for win purposes.” Apart from that little aside, I
feel mob-handed in the value department for the RSA.
Queen Mother
Not much of a betting heat
and a likely small field in a market that will cut up a little more. I’ll be
involving Sire De Grugy in some straight or combination action (as a 40TF
horse), otherwise, simply a glorious spectacle.
Ryanair
Market leader Benefficient returned
to form in the Dial-A-Bet chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. But at 5-1 he
makes much less appeal that the horse he (interfered with and) beat by only ¾
that day, Hidden Cyclone. Shark Hanlon’s horse is available here at 12-1. He
has recovered from a disappointing season and a half to recapture the promise
shown in his hurdle and early novice chasing days. 2 ½ miles is his trip and he
has good enough track form behind John’s Spirit in the Paddy Power in November.
In a race that could still cut up, this is a tender bit of melt in the mouth value.
World Hurdle
Backed Zarkandar at 10-1 before
the Kingwell on Saturday, thinking that if he mullered MR his price would
contract. He didn’t and it didn’t. Not a confident bet especially. Although
he’s well worth a shot at 3 miles, having lost some zip this year, I’m not
putting my mortgage on this one.
Albert Bartlett
I do like my novice
hurdlers. But I’m looking a bit shaky here. Sausalito Sunrise (50-1
e-w) is a big outsider, even by my standards. Champagne West (25-1 e-w)
as advised earlier is more likely for the Pertemps. I had a little look at Oscar
Rock as well on Saturday morning. The usual tactic – 25-1 e-w would look
big if he trotted up in his prep at Haydock. He was very poor, however. Looked
like he hated the deep ground, but that alone is probably not enough to explain
the drop off in the form since November.
Gold Cup
I haven’t fully recovered
from Silviniaco Conti’s fall at the fourth last in 2013. He was tanking. Even
though my head says Bob’s Worth would have ground him down on the hill, my
heart says I’d have loved to see what Conti had left to give. My head - still
chuntering away – says that Cheltenham really isn’t his track. This time I’m
listening. I’m not interested in Bob’s Worth either at 9-4. Whatever value
there was after his poor seasonal debut I missed. So thankfully Last
Instalment produced an exhilarating display of jumping in the Irish
Hennessy to enable me to have a proper bet in the Gold Cup. 8-1 is a fair
price, given he hasn’t run at the Festival before and he might want soft going.
More soon. Inevitably.
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