A Grand Plan
Me and my mouth.
For some while I had been
bragging to a work colleague that he should give me a straight grand to gamble
with over the course of the Jumps season. In return, come April, I’d hand him
back a guaranteed £1,100. A six-month 10% profit margin that he would never secure
in the High Street banks or would struggle to match on the stock markets.
The incentive for me in the
deal would be that any profit I made over £1,100 was mine to squirrel away. The
grand would act as an investment, a pump-priming scenario. My staking is
typically a lilly-livered affair because I never allow any bank of profits to
build up. They are usually creamed off into the beer and kebab account, instead
of fuelling a more structured punting strategy. I was supremely confident,
based on my stats, that I’d land a few hundred quid’s profit.
I’d mentioned this offer to
any number of people, but only Pete from the office took me seriously. Even
then, the transaction took ages to set up. He never seemed to have a thousand
quid lying around at the right time. Tsk.
Then a conversation in the
staff room last October went something like this:
“Dave, is the betting offer still on?”
“What? The grab-a-grand? Yeah, though I’m maxed out with work at the moment. I’m not doing much punting. Could start it at Christmas?”
“Ah. Well I might not have the money at Christmas!”
“Oh. Ok then, let’s do it then!”
It was time to put the money
where my big mouth is. And through Christmas, cresting the New year, the plan
was unfurling like a glorious route map to Cheltenham. I was up on the deal by
a decent three-figure margin.
Then I embarked on the sort
of crippling run that frays nerves, strips resolve and shreds reason.
38 bets struck since then,
powered by £420 of stakes without returning a single winner. There were a few
skinny place returns skulking away in the midriff of poorly constructed
each-way Lucky 15s. These amounted to no more than £40. But not one bona-fide,
first-past-the-post winner amongst them. It’s barely credible. Looking for the
value inevitably means there will be gaps between winners, but my New Year
optimism has foundered on a slew of dispiriting results. Soooo many seconds.
I’ve hit the bar more times than Oliver Reed and George Best on a weekend
bender.
The sequence was broken by
Casse Tete on Saturday at Warwick, when he overhauled a tiring Kylemore Lough gunned
for home too early by his jockey. Only 6/1, but I’ll take it. Re-set. Go again.
As an antidote to the mayhem
in this struggling strategy with Pete, I’ve found myself casting an eye over
the non-runner-no-bet markets for the Festival.
About time too.
I was impressed by Vision
Des Flos at Exeter on Sunday in a listed novice hurdle. Much improved
for the application of a tongue tie, I suspect, rather than the wind-tinkering - declarations for which have proved to be no
friend of the punter. As likely an explainer is the return to form of Tizzard’s
stable after some deep mid-winter blues. Maybe the €270,000 investment in this
beast is not yet wasted. He won by 30-odd lengths and was visually attractive
in the way he pulled away from at least three fair-ish rivals. I’ve taken 1pt
e-w at 25/1 for the Ballymore novice hurdle and a saver of 33/1 for the Supreme.
The record of Warwick’s Kingmaker
Chase in setting up Cheltenham coronations is strong. Flagship Uberalles, Voy
Por Ustedes, Cenkos, Finians Rainbow and Long Run all have this race in their ceremonial
progression. The track demands a decent round of jumping. Five stiff fences in
a line down the back straight provide a real test of rhythm and fluency. A test
that Saint
Calvados passed with A*s. His victory on Saturday was the sort of
purring, classy demolition job that had me drooling. Yes, he’ll be up against
many people’s banker of the meeting in Footpad. I don’t care. I want to be
cheering on this brilliant jumper for the little guys. Who knows how he will
handle the undulations of Cheltenham, or likely better going. If he comes close
to finding the rhythm of Saturday, he will be a sight to savour. 8/1 win only.
I’ve burnt my fingers somewhat
in the Champion Hurdle. I found the 5/1 on offer with Stan James prior to the
Irish Champion Hurdle too good to resist. Of course, the bet still stands
should Faugheen turn up at Prestbury Park. But the likelihood that he
will and then go on to win seems remote. A great shame. Faugheen versus Buveur
D’Air would be something special, though I’m sure Faugheen in his pomp would have
seen him off. We can only speculate. And maybe reserve a little space for
wishful thinking.
A bit of a punt in the RSA
Chase. At 16/1 e-w, I’m putting a lot of faith in the view that Mia’s
Storm hated the ground in the Kauto Star Novices Chase at Kempton over
Christmas. Her two previous outings over fences were very good, including a
smart win over Elegant Escape. The race has a more open feel about it than the
market suggests, though this is far from a confident bet. This is a race I’ll
return to.
I loved the performance of Time
To Move On in his debut bumper at Exeter in December. Always travelling
supremely well, Barry Geraghty brought her wide to find better ground, covering
much more ground than his rivals. He still won by an eased down 10 lengths. I backed
him for the Bumper at 16/1 only a few days before his return to Exeter on
Sunday. There he carried his 7lb penalty easily, idled in front but still
looked class. Happy enough. Only just wish I’d got on earlier.
Sticking with the
irrepressible Fergal O’Brien, Poetic Rhythm was my first ante-post
strike at 25/1 not long after the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. He caught my eye after
what now looks like a half decent Persian War renewal back in October. He is not as classy as some but has guts and determination. He goes
straight to the Albert Bartlett (I hope).
Finally, a long shot for the
Gold Cup with an old buddy who settled his debt with me in the King George at
Christmas. Double Shuffle stayed on well to hurry up Mite Bite at 50/1 and
I snaffled a decent bit of place money. I’m a big fan of Tom George’s charge
whom I believe to be still on the upgrade, but who needs the right conditions.
A truly run race on good/good-soft ground at 3 miles-plus is his game. Despite
what most pundits will tell you, I don’t believe he was desperately flattered
by his proximity to Mite Bite. They are just pissed off that so many good
horses on paper misfired on the day. Double Shuffle is also entered in the
Ryanair but I can’t for the life of me think that is the right race.
That’s it for now. Meanwhile,
back to the Grand grind. I remain confident.
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