Breaching the dam
The prospect of such a good weekend of racing coming up has
finally pierced my cloak of ante-post self-denial. Granted, I’ve hardly
unleashed a torrent yet. Bets have trickled rather than gushed into the
reservoir.
The stats tell me that my ante-post book rarely pays
dividends. The plan this season was always to rein back from the scatter gun
approach of previous years, engage in the game little later, and lop out much
of the each-way element.
This week has seen entries for the novice chases made on the
back of earlier championship entries, together with some decent trials earlier
in the month. I’ve been spurred into action. So this is the first tranche.
Arkle
Novice Chase
Some Plan
- 1pt @ 33/1 win, Betfair
I had been impressed with his engine when tanking along in
the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham in November. He fell at the last before he had
been asked a question. Next time at Naas, the jumping was generally more
assured and he showed a willing attitude. Worth a punt at the price before a
real test in Leopardstown’s Arkle trial on Sunday. He could end up in the JLT,
of course, though untried at that trip and nothing yet says the step up is
needed.
Sunday’s race also features Identity Thief, Royal Caviar and
Bleu Et Rouge in a traditional small-but- classy affair. I really like the
latter too, but Mullins has messed about with his trip and I’m not ready to get
stuck in yet. I’d be interested in his chances in the JLT, but first need some
clue that he will head that way. I'm shying away from the risk just now.
Champion
Hurdle
Petit
Mouchoir – 2pts win @ 9/1, Betfair
Easy to say with hindsight, but I really switched on to
Petit Mouchoir in the Fighting Fifth when travelling strongly, before coming
down in a horrible fall at the last. A speculative punt then would have been
interesting. The Ryanair Hurdle win was convincing, though the horse needs to
settle better. Elliot has improved this horse by the spade full and he is now a
genuine Champion Hurdle contender. By prevaricating, I’ve seen the price
contract. Even more so after the scratching of Annie Power last week. The price
drifted to 9/1 this afternoon and I struck like a cobra… after the horse has
already bolted. That price could be double again in 48 hours if Faugheen comes
out on Sunday and picks up where he left off in the race last year.
Neptune
Novice Hurdle
Saturnas –
1pt win @ 22/1, Betfair
Improved markedly from a relatively pedestrian 2nd
behind Airlie Beach in the Royal Bond to a comfortable win at Leopardstown over
Christmas. He was keeping on well to the post and judges better than me think
he will stay further. The price has tempted me in, though it is not yet clear
where this one sits in the Closutton pecking order, nor what his target will
be. Speculative. He has an entry in the Deloitte next month.
Neon Wolf looked fantastic last week, but I’ve missed the
price if, as seems likely, he runs here rather than the Supreme.
Ryanair
Chase
Sizing
John - 2pts win @ 8/1 NRFB, William Hill
I’ve been on the wrong end of Sizing John’s defeats to
Douvan since I was in short trousers. The case to step him up to 2 ½ miles has been compelling for ages. Not only to avoid the imperious Douvan who has scalped
John seven times, but because the extended trip should suit. He has usually
stayed on well in his races, it was just that Douvan has been about half a lap
ahead. John’s only attempt at the trip was last season at Aintree when it is
likely that another pounding three weeks earlier in the Arkle at the hands of
Mullins’ flying machine had left its mark. Needless to say I had backed him for
the JLT at the Festival.
Now with Jessica Harrington, Sizing John looks like he will
be campaigned properly at this trip. The Kinloch Brae last week was evidence
enough for me.
Albert
Bartlett Novice Hurdle
The
Storyteller - ½pt win @ 55/1, Betfair
He’s not done too much so far, but clearly rated by Gordon
Elliot and beat Festival Bumper runner up, Battleford fair and square at the
weekend. Looks like he’ll stay this far, so I’ve taken a punt at decent odds.
Ah. That feels better.
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