Betting by auction part 2
I’m trudging back into the annals of historical
punting to dust off part two of last month’s Betting by auction post.
So I’m picking up the hot trail laid down by Nick in
his school silent auction. I had been so very impressed by his stunning
precedent-setting blend of altruistic education support and hedonistic gambling
pursuits. It was a little later that year when I got my own chance.
The Greenway First School Promises Auction was from
much the same mould as Nick’s silent auction. It was a fundraiser designed to
fleece parents of their cash whilst convincing them that they were having a
good time. In this case, the committee had put together a brochure of eclectic
activities, products and offers on which we could bid during the course of the
evening. Mixed bag could have been coined for this collection. At one end of
the scale a well-heeled couple had put up a week’s holiday in an apartment in
downtown Singapore and another
family had offered a New Year’s Eve break in their Norfolk hideaway
cottage. At the more modest end of the auction we had promises of babysitting,
photo framing and mince pie baking.
In a weak moment, I had tentatively suggested to Sue,
the no-nonsense chair of the school association, that I could offer up a
betting deal: I would fund a two quid bet of my selection every day for the
month of November. The winning bidder would keep any winnings and I would
swallow the losses. A very generous potential contribution to the cause of £60,
I reckoned. Although I knew that I would want to double up all my selections.
There was no way I could bear to tip up winners (thinking optimistically, as
ever) without collecting on them personally. So on that basis, my adjusted maximum
potential wipe-out could be £120 and I felt comfortable batting away cheeky allegations
of dipping into long pockets with short arms. We can’t all offer up swanky apartments
overlooking former Colonial outposts. On the other hand, who else was laying
down such obvious trading profit potential? (Investments can go down as well as
up…)
I didn’t hear anything further for a while and was
quietly hoping that the offer had been dropped: perhaps it was not quite the
thing to be promoting at a respectable middle class school, or maybe the
concept was too convoluted compared to, say, ’24 fairy cakes, choose your own
icing’.
But then Mrs A brought home the catalogue shortly
before the auction and there was my promise, sitting mid-brochure, Lot 28,
‘Horse Race Tipping Service’. My offer had made the cut. I immediately had
doubts. Who was I to put up something so audacious? What sort of track record
did I really have? Smug punting ( © Bacchy, 2010) indeed!
The evening was a riot. The school hall had been
transformed into the sort of hot-headed auction ring more reminiscent of the
Doncaster Breeze Up Sales. The floor was heaving with twenty or so octagonal
tables, each crammed with high-spirited parents filling the space where
children usually gathered for assembly. A commercial property auctioneer,
thickly coiffed grey hair and sharp, laughing eyes set in a face suspiciously
well tanned for October, surveyed the scene from the stage. He had been recruited
to sell the promises the hard way. He did a fine job of cajoling, bullying and
inspiring the packed school hall into a frenzy of generous bidding.
The bring-your-own booze probably helped too. Our
group was getting merrily plastered on vats of cheap vin rouge that loosened
the tongue and the wallet. Andy, opposite me, was shouting up for anything
going: tree trimming services, photography portrait sessions, haircuts... He
finally won an over-priced meal for two at the local gastro pub and collected a
few vicious digs in the ribs from his missus to boot.
Brian the auctioneer was bigging up everything.
Enthusiasm increasingly gripped the room with every passing lot. The cottage in
Norfolk went for £200 more than the Singapore apartment half an hour
previously.
It came to my promise. “I’ve been looking forward to
this one,” said Brian. “Betting tips. I’m not even sure this one is legal!' The
bidding started modestly and smoothly rose to an unsustainable level. I was
pulling faces flitting between incredulity, pride and fear. Mrs A was just
laughing. Andy considered a bid until I added to his collection of rib
ticklers. The hammer finally fell at 120 quid. Much too high.
I did permit a little satisfaction at
having boosted the school library fund by scamming some unsuspecting parent of
a good few quid. But the fleeting delight was quickly overshadowed by the
looming, sheer, vertiginous challenge in front of me.
“Shit!”, I mouthed. “I’ll never win that back!”
The evening ended with a fish and chip supper during
which over exuberant winning bidders were relieved of their cash and then
hooked up with their donors to arrange delivery of the promise. I scanned the
list pinned to Brian’s impressive rostrum and went in search of ‘Tim,
Table 12’.
“Hello”, I introduced myself to a well-groomed,
smart-casually attired bloke of about the same age, stature and level of
inebriation as me.
“I’m the amateur tipster. I think you’ve purchased my
promise”.
There was good natured back-slapping and
licking of lips. He introduced me to his brother who had put up half the stake,
and to his wife whom I vaguely recognised from the school run.
“We assumed you were a bookie? Or maybe a
professional gambler? This is money for old rope isn’t it?”
I wiped some errant ketchup off my chin and looked at
the smear of red on the end of my finger. Was that the time to tell them that I
was a mug punter and that they would never see their money again? Maybe they
had begun to realise this for themselves.
But I was undeterred. The betting bonanza kicked off
at the Cheltenham Paddy Power meeting the very next day. The Gold Cup is one of
the crown jewels of the jumping calendar and I already had a horse in mind.
Sunday 14th November
Hi Tim
Well, we got off to an absolute flyer yesterday. Celestial Gold showed
all the fortitude of a gilded heavenly body to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup at
Cheltenham, landing the odds at 12-1. That will do nicely. Jockey Timmy Murphy
gave the horse a peach of a ride, holding him up out the back and letting the
strong pace bring Celestial Gold's stamina into play. Murphy had him jumping
like a dream and produced the gelding with his trademark exquisite timing to
repel the challenge of Thisthatandtother. Masterful riding. We can do with a
few more like this if we are turn ourselves a tidy profit.
Today's principal meetings at Cheltenham and Haydock do not offer as
much obvious value. Nevertheless, there are some good races and I've plumped
for the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, 2.40pm at Cheltenham. This is an excellent
race with some of the best hurdlers making their seasonal reappearance. The
selected horse is TROUBLE AT BAY who is a young horse (4), improving all the
time. This is a tough race and he is up against older and more experienced
horses here, notably in the shape of former Champion Hurdle winner Rooster Booster,
and Accordian Etoile an Irish raider with strong credentials. These two will
likely vie for favouritism. But Trouble is well weighted at the bottom of the
handicap, has won four of his last six races and has had the benefit of a good
2nd last month which should put him spot on for this race. I've backed him this
morning at 6-1.
Best of luck
Dave
I could hardly believe my luck!
What a way to start. On a personal level it was even better as another of
Martin Pipe’s runners Stormez had also won in the 3 mile handicap chase at the
end of the card, despite hitting every single fence down the back straight. I
was delirious. Breathless. Our neighbours popped over to see how our loft
conversion was progressing.
“Come in, come Fay, Adrian. Come
in. Lovely to see you. Sorry, bit all over the place. Stormez just won me a
packet at Cheltenham. Ha! And I’m running this tipping service and the first
one has come in! Ha! Would you believe it? A tipping service? Me? Right just
going out for some air. Need to breath. Helen’s in the loft. See you later.”
Fay was nodding and smiling politely, trying to
comprehend the merest sliver of the molten garbage I was Lewis-gunning her way.
But the eyes betrayed mirth and pity in equal doses. Once outside I marched up
the hill, grinned, breathed deeply and finally began to feel the adrenaline
subside.
Monday 15th October
I have to say I'm most impressed and I wish that I had been able to
watch the Gold Cup to share a bit of the excitement. I should of course have
placed a side bet on that one!!!. Perhaps we can see what's on next weekend.
The level of info you're giving is brilliant, although I hope you don't
feel obliged to produce race reports like this everyday!
Onwards and upwards.
He didn’t even have a bet! Unbelievable! There I was,
busting my nuts…
Monday, 15th November
Cheers Tim
Shame yesterday's selection didn't quite do the business. Trouble At Bay
ran with credit and was with the leaders until 2 hurdles out when he weakened
to finish a game 5th. But I guess the conclusion is that he hasn't quite made
the jump to join the top class hurdlers yet. One to keep an eye on.
Today's selection - and apologies for the lateness of this tip – emerges
after casting around some very thin cards at a couple of pokey little tracks
around the country. They provide a shocking antedote to last weekend's stellar
meetings. So we head to the East Midlands in search of inspiration. The 2.20 at
Leicester is a long way from inspiration. However, the Ladbrokes.com Novices
Chase (Class D), looks like the best we will get! The tip is JODANTE at 13-2 in
a race where all the money is for a horse called Raw Silk. I think the
favourite can be opposed on the basis that Jodante was beaten only a length
last time they met and our horse gets his favoured good ground today. Jodante's
form is solid and I'm hopeful of a good run.
Stay lucky!
Tuesday 16th November
Dave,
How do you follow the races? Internet? Do you place your bets over the
net or do you live above Corals?!
Could you please also copy emails to my work address, where I spend a
lot of time during the day?
So a couple of losers to follow
up the winning start. But at least Tim was getting into the swing of things.
17th November
Tim
We had a non-runner yesterday. Monger Lane was withdrawn well before the
off. The stake is returned so I'll put up two selections on Saturday to keep us
on course for the month. There are plenty of good fixtures over the weekend.
The best fixture today is at Kempton, but the fields are small and there
are too many poor value odds-on runners. So we head north to Hexham. Bandit
Country. The 1.55pm is a decent handicap hurdle with a field of 16. The race is
wide open, offering value opportunities. The key here will be the going
conditions. The ground is heavy and so we are looking for mudlarks. Horses that
like it hock deep. I've backed FLORRIES SON at 14-1. He has won on soft and
heavy going, loves it round this track and comes from a stable in good form
just now. He has been chasing most recently and so he reverts to his hurdles
handicap mark where he has been placed in every one of his seven runs and has
won 4 of them. He has been off the track for over 200 days which is reflected
in the price. But the trainer is adept at getting them fit first time out and I
think he could go well.
Cheers
Dave
17th November
Fascinating stuff. "Mudlarks in bandit country" raised a
chuckle. When do you have time to work?!
Florries Son was another
non-runner and reappeared in the strategy later on. More evidence here that Tim
was at least enjoying the ride. The old clichés were suckering him in.
19th November
Tim
We really came off the rails yesterday. Barrow Drive ran an absolute
shocker. Rain came and turned the ground soft, but even so this
ultra-consistent gelding should at least have been competitive. He was pulled
up with about 3 fences to go. I was quite confident about his chances before
the race. I mentioned him to the bloke who sells me the Racing Post at the
station. So that's another newsagent’s I can't go back to.
Belting action today. Three-time Gold Cup winner and all-round superstar
Best Mate returns to action in a four runner race at Exeter. He lines up
against at least one genuine pretender to his Crown, Sir Rembrandt who ran him
a very close 2nd in last season's Gold Cup. Sir R is a horse I love (in a
platonic way, naturally), but can't see him winning today. Although the race
will be a cracker, then, it's actually a non-betting race.
‘So where's the value?’, I hear you utter. Well I'm suggesting a win
double today. SAY WHAT YOU SEE from the Martin Price stable in the 1.20 at
Exeter, who should go off at about 3-1 and ATAHUELPA in the 3.45 at Windsor at
about 7-4. Both selections are skinny prices - too short by my value principles
to stick a mere £2 on - but hold very strong chances on earlier form this
season and so it's worth chancing a double.
19th November
Second, last or a non-finisher, I guess it matters not (almost
philosophical!), although your pride is clearly at stake!!
Why don't you call me at home on Saturday morning with selections for
tomorrow and we can have a chat. We might not yet be ready to retire, but I am
really enjoying all this!
Cheers, Tim
This was rank bad form. Half a dozen bets in and I was
already putting up ridiculous win doubles. Absolute mug punting territory and a
simple product of self-inflicted pressure. No good could ever have come of such
shambolic tactics and sure enough nothing did.
Sunday, November 21
Tim,
A couple of shockers today. Turgeonev ran a stinker in the handicap
hurdle and Native Emperor, whilst running well for most of the race, never
landed a blow in the Becher Chase.
Tomorrow's selection comes from Ludlow. In the 2.20 handicap chase for
amateur riders, I've backed CARRYONHARRY at 11-2. This horse has decent form,
but has been carrying too much weight in recent outings to trouble the judge.
The handicapper has relented by dropping him a few pounds and on this mark, he
should go well in a tight little race.
Celestial Gold is starting to feel like a long time ago!
22 November
Another winner! Carryonharry absolutely hacked up at Ludlow. Won by 27 lengths,
virtually unopposed. I took 11-2 last night, which is just as well.
Stable confidence behind the horse saw him backed in to 7-2. So much the
better for us. Not that eleven quid will break the bank, of course.
Tomorrow, we are back in the frozen North. Sedgefield. Grim as they
come. The race is grimmer still. 3pm, Ken Bright Memorial Chase, 3m3f, Class F.
Why Ken Bright’s folks would choose to commemorate him with this bilge is hard
to fathom. We can’t go much further down the grading alphabet without backing
Blackpool Beach donkeys. It's an open race though, which tempts us in. TROOPER,
at 8-1 is burdened with our wedge in this stirling encounter. Down in the
weights, soft ground performer, course and distance winner, top jockey booking.
Must go close.
Ever onwards
23rd November
RESULT!! Well done.
I didn't ask you what you do for a living, although judging by the
jargon-loaded reports, I now assume you must be a sports journalist, aspiring
to be a racing commentator!
Regards
Tim
That winner was a long time coming. Slowly I was
convincing Tim that I was not a mug punter at all, but a seasoned tipster who
knows what he’s talking about. Who says jargon is a bad thing? Or clichés for that matter. And a bit
of bullshit is never a bad thing. Take that away and there’s not a lot left.
25th Nov
All good stuff. Tell me, when you go into Corals, are the odds printed
in the papers on the walls the ones they give or am I misunderstanding how they
operate. When I popped in on Saturday and checked the odds following our
conversation, I found that they were a lot shorter than you had got i.e. 11-1
was printed up at 11-5 ??
Cheers
Tim
28 November 2004
Yeah, the forecast prices on the eve of racing are called ‘tissues’ and
are often wayward. Some bookies will offer prices for the Saturday cards and
the big races on the previous evening and that’s what I try to plough into. The
other factor is that the prices can massively see-saw on the day, in response
to the weight of money. Mind you, 11-1 in to 11-5 is pretty extreme. Clearly a
plot horse lined up for an imponderable handicap! Good to see you are venturing
into the local bookies now!
As regards the most recent raft of bets, no amount of cool analysis and
dispassionate observation can swerve me from the view that on Saturday at
Newbury we was robbed. Fleeced. Shafted. You probably feel the same about
events at Twickenham. Two runners-up. Albahuera and Claymore. Each beaten by
less than a length. I was gutted.
Puntal ran well for 6th in the big chase. You may have noticed our old
mate Celestial Gold trotted up in that race. I passed over him on the basis
that the price was too short. It didn't look too bad when he crossed the line
in front though! The horse is in the form of his life. Royal Shakespeare also
ran well for 3rd at Newcastle. Though the winner, Harchibald, looks something
special. A real Champion Hurdle prospect. The bookies have already slashed his
odds for that race next March.
No point moaning about near misses though. We need winners. We are now
over half way through the bets. Only two winners in the bag at this stage is a
touch below par. This is where the gloves come off.
Back to Newcastle tomorrow. FLORRIES SON runs in the 3m handicap hurdle
at 2.20. I've backed him at 10-1. This formerly useful chaser reverts to the
hurdles on a handy enough mark. He goes well fresh, is a dour stayer and holds
a strong chance in this very open race.
Dave
29th Nov 2004
You were gutted and so were we! My brother-in-law and I placed £5 side
bets on all Saturday's runners and watched the races on video, without knowing
the results, after the rugby. I persuaded myself that the law of averages had
to apply after an empty week and that one of the four would come in. WRONG!
Found the races exciting all the same.
Just to compound matters, we then tried to recoup our losses by getting
stuck into the 6 - 15 point winning margin in the France - New Zealand game. We
backed both teams at 11-1. How could we lose? As you must know, the All-Blacks
went on to stuff Les Bleus 45 - 6 !!!!!!!!
My wife is very concerned that you're a
bad influence on me…
Onwards and upwards
Tim
Nice to see the gambling seed
sown in October was beginning to flourish with such vigour (paving the way for
inevitable disappointment…)
Wednesday 1st
December
Hi Tim
I hope it comes as a pleasant surprise to you to learn that we bagged a
winner today. MIOCHE D'ESTRUVAL landed odds of 12-1 in a handicap hurdle at
Newton Abbot, 2.50pm.
I couldn't place the bet on-line at work. Damn, they must be catching up
with me! So I left the bet cooking
nicely in my addled brain til I could watch the race in the bookies. I couldn't
believe that the horse had drifted out to 12s! I was expected 8-1 and no better
when I plotted this one up. Our talismanic jockey, Timmy Murphy delivered the
beast on a beautifully timed run out wide to pouch the race on the line.
Spectacular stuff.
We've had three positive returns now, all from the Martin Pipe stable.
I'm not usually a big fan of his – the prices are often too short - but I can't
complain at this return. We've backed four of his, three have delivered and the
other was 2nd! This brings us to £59 profit. I may not win you back all your
£120 auction wedge, but I'd hope to land at least another two winners or so
from the remaining 12 bets.
Tomorrow, the action comes from Plumpton and Catterick. The cards are
more threadbare than a hooker’s panties though, and I'm not putting up a
selection. I'll double up on Saturday when there is an outstanding meeting at
Sandown and you can sit in front of the box and watch the money roll in. I'm at
the track for the first day of the meeting on Friday. It's a belter and I can’t
wait.
We did indeed have a good day at Sandown. The Friday
of the wonderful Tingle Creek meeting has been a regular fixture in our diary
for many years. Whilst it does not offer the same glitter and glory as the
following day’s main event, that dank day we saw both the future winner and
runner up of the Festival’s RSA Hurdle which would be run a few months later.
We also saw my mate Bacchy snaffle the winner of the lucky last at 25-1 and
polish off his hip flask in the Albert Arms on Esher High Street a brief moment
before being invited to leave by the management.
I rang Tim on Saturday morning with that day’s tips,
speaking slowly and quietly so as not to unduly disturb my fragile state of
being. Atahuelpa at 9-1 and Historic at 11-2.
Sunday, 5th December
Hi Tim
Don't know if you caught Saturday's racing. Atahuelpa never landed a
blow in that massive handicap hurdle, but Historic was simply magnificent in
the marathon chase. Jumped his rivals ragged. His nearest pursuer coming
acropper four out was a handy outcome for us. I'd expected odds of 11-2, but as
the price was drifting all morning, I waited till nearer the off and we landed
8-1. Bit of a bonus. So 75 quid in the bank and 8 selections to come.
Tomorrow we head north of the border to Ayr for a 2m5f handicap chase.
JALASTEP is the selection - assuming I can get better than 6-1 tomorrow
morning. This is a tricky little handicap, but this horse loves the track and
his best form has come on good ground. The market is made by Huka Lodge on whom
I have collected before, but tomorrow's distance is likely to be too short and
he seems to like bottomless ground. The race is due off at 1.30pm.
I'll double up on Saturday so that the last bets of this series come at
the very decent Cheltenham Bonusprint meeting this weekend.
Tim rang, ecstatic that he’d finally managed to cheer
home a winner on a big Saturday afternoon. Unfortunatley, Jalastep received a
huge bump approaching the 1st fence at Ayr, knocking the jockey
clean out of the saddle.
Thursday, 9th
December
Bridesmaid again yesterday. We are getting too many of these. Lou Du
Moulin Mas had every chance chasing the leader at the last fence, but he
couldn't quicken and was beaten by three lengths. Cosy enough for the winner.
Today we venture to sleepy Huntingdon: land of animal research, former
Prime Ministers and Martin Pipe hurdlers. HENRIETTA is the girl for us in the
2.20pm 3m handicap hurdle; part of Pipe's carefully assembled raiding party.
This mare landed a three-timer over timber last season before being found out
in a listed event at Aintree. Back to her level here in a Class D race I'm
hopeful that she can land odds of 7-1.
I've been passed a tip today too. TOULON ROUGE runs in the 1pm
Huntingdon novice chase. Currently trading at 10-1 I find it hard to believe
that this beast is nailed on to win; but the source is adamant that the tip is
'red hot'. I don't know the source personally so can't vouch for his
credentials. But I do know that the horse is trained by Ferdy Murphy who is a
right old rogue and well capable of plotting up something like this. There's a
chance that the info might have come from the stable, in which case the price
should tumble. I've had a couple of quid on. Just for interest you know.....
Henrietta was a well beaten 3rd
and Toulon Rouge went down by a mere three parts of a length at 12-1. I never
found out whether Tim had got on at that price, but it was clear each-way
territory and I satisfied myself with a small consolation collect.
Friday 10th December
Last three bets Tim, on this, your roller-coasting™ charity auction
purchase. Unless we land all three races, I can’t see this adventure turning
into any real profit on your initial outlay, but we’ll go down all guns blazing
at any rate. Today is a good quality opening day of the Bonusprint meeting at
HQ. We find our eyes drawn yet again to the winning machine master of Pond
House for our first selection in the last race of the day. Martin Pipe’s
THEREALBANDIT is just that. A horse known to criminally waste his prodigious
talent and thieve the hard earned wedge of honest punters. A bandit indeed. But
we can’t let him go off at 6-1. If he recaptures a smidgeon of his novice form
last year he will be bang there at a track he would like to roll up and take
home.
Tomorrow, GAZUMP has the look of an improver about him in the novice
chase. He has winning track and distance form and looks very solid at 11-2. And
in the novice hurdle at 3.45, there should be more to come from JACKSON over
hurdles and this extra 2 furlongs should play to his stamina strengths.
Here’s hoping we go out with a scream!
Monday 13th December
Hi Dave
Therealbandit seemed to win very nicely on Friday. Well done.
Although having placed some modest each way side bets on Saturday and
watched races on video on Sunday, I cannot help but think that this business is
a bit of a lottery!! Gazump got us off to a particularly bad start!!
I managed to derive some satisfaction from Jackson edging a second place
in the 3.45, but I only got 7-1 odds with Ladbrokes on Saturday. Hey Ho!
Notwithstanding that this has not proved to be a positive investment, the
money went to a good cause. I've really been won over by the experience and
have enjoyed the winners. And your commentaries have been excellent, so thanks
for all your hard work.
It would be nice if you and the family could make it round for a
pre-Christmas drink, either next weekend, or one evening next week when kids
are off school. How are you fixed?
Regards
Tim
So in the final analysis, I
didn’t win back Tim his £120 promises auction outlay. Indeed I was left with a
lingering sense that he felt I should have done better. And yet by any
standards the statistics during this period were solid. I landed 5 wins from 30
bets, which is a very respectable strike rate of 16%. The winners were big fat
prices that you can properly scream home. None of that odds-on thievery: 12-1,
11-2, 12-1, 8-1 and 13-2, netting a profit of £28 on top of £60 staking (30
bets). This gives profit on turnover – the Daddy of punting performance
indicators, so I’m told – of 46%. Four of the winners were trained by Martin
Pipe. Never before had I had such a healthy return from his barn.
Mrs A and I, together with the
girls gathered at Tim’s for a lovely evening with him and his family just
before Christmas. I thought I had detected the merest leveling off of Tim’s
enthusiasm for the project by the end. I projected onto his conversations his
realization that there was no easy route to glory. In hindsight this is
something I should have stressed to him and in the auction at the outset,
rather than bigging up the operation. Expectation management or something.
But over a few glasses of deep
red claret, Tim was incredibly generous in his praise of my pimped up racing
reports and was a tad disappointed to discover that I was just another
desk-bound fantasist rather than an insider from the racing industry. If only
he knew how I had ploughed every avenue of hackneyed Racing Post one-liners I
could muster. Another day would have sent me over the edge.
Tim’s wife Hilary had equally
become fascinated by the murky world of tipping and feared for the very moral
soul of her hubby on a couple of occasions.
I wrote out a cheque for £88
which was the gross profit on the winners. I’d said in the auction that I would
swallow the losing stakes. But to my client this was still a loss of £32, plus
his own side bets, (for which I naturally could not take responsibility). So
friends made, entertainment consumed and charities supported. Not quite
everyone a winner though, but this was good enough.
That said, Tim has never asked
me for a tip since…
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